Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.271160 2.403919 2.548065 2.717731 2.914065 3.136865 3.413038
2025-07-27 2.139679 2.304812 2.491509 2.721941 3.004403 3.347881 3.812385
2025-08-03 2.051304 2.235148 2.448694 2.721117 3.069419 3.516320 4.166646
2025-08-10 1.946443 2.134352 2.355931 2.644000 3.021593 3.522395 4.286971
2025-08-17 1.880157 2.073602 2.304895 2.610968 3.021867 3.585018 4.488703
2025-08-24 1.828483 2.026549 2.266198 2.588268 3.029952 3.653820 4.704124
2025-08-31 1.790306 1.993369 2.241830 2.580709 3.055192 3.745954 4.969011
2025-09-07 1.766037 1.975669 2.235159 2.594621 3.109274 3.884013 5.338809
2025-09-14 1.697184 1.899243 2.149555 2.496668 2.994400 3.745413 5.161621
2025-09-21 1.678601 1.885592 2.144427 2.507962 3.039070 3.863965 5.505497
2025-09-28 1.636608 1.840689 2.096667 2.457698 2.988437 3.820879 5.508991
2025-10-05 1.637955 1.851019 2.121458 2.509215 3.093538 4.047418 6.144331
2025-10-12 1.643730 1.868895 2.159098 2.584269 3.246716 4.390825 7.241518
2025-10-19 1.624742 1.853427 2.150643 2.591341 3.291165 4.540993 7.921602
2025-10-26 1.605496 1.836782 2.139597 2.593412 3.326567 4.677430 8.646540
2025-11-02 1.563486 1.788807 2.083848 2.526091 3.240760 4.558268 8.435110
2025-11-09 1.536938 1.760798 2.054933 2.498032 3.219962 4.571195 8.720954
2025-11-16 1.514802 1.738107 2.032666 2.478970 3.213056 4.611834 9.140311
2025-11-23 1.498303 1.722514 2.019742 2.473412 3.228785 4.702292 9.836688
2025-11-30 1.489054 1.716333 2.019645 2.487233 3.278950 4.875277 11.105456
2025-12-07 1.446858 1.664929 1.954713 2.398604 3.142135 4.609604 9.924679
2025-12-14 1.438409 1.659027 1.953943 2.409721 3.184728 4.760759 11.108025
2025-12-21 1.412099 1.628468 1.917604 2.364224 3.122998 4.663318 10.826422